Surprises happen, often Taking a step back, we had no clue about the PM’s announcement about the de-monetization (banning of Rs 500 & Rs 1000 currency notes) and are still to come to terms with the impact and the after effects of the move. Neither had anyone any idea that a certain Donald Trump, a political first-timer, will be elected the President of the US of America! But both events happened, and took most, if not all of us, by surprise. Coming back to Indian markets, the commentators are as divided on the economic and political impact of the anti-black money drive on the common man as they were clueless about such an event unfolding. However, prima facie, I see the following likely outcomes: Rise in deposits, will bring down rates: If the so far, surge in bank deposits (Rs 4 lakh crores so far; ~4% of total deposits) are anything to go by, the move may shore up bank deposits which in turn would swell short term liquidity in the system, putting downward ...
Going against the herd is the key principle of Value investment. This is where it differs from the chartists etc who essentially try to “go with the flow”. Going with the flow is great while swimming. Contrarian thinking is not based on ignoring known facts or just trying to be different / brave. It essentially means stripping out the emotions from the current situation and looking at things in black and white. Explaining with a demo: Let me make this clear with an example. I am sure “3 idiots” a popular bollywood flick, was enjoyed by one and all (including me). Most of us will also swear by the “message” of the movie. But on a slightly deeper analysis, the movie shows big fallacies and inconsistencies in its events and incidents. I will take one: a student commits suicide since the heartless professor didn’t allow him extra time/credits for project submission. CONSENSUS view: Poor student had to die because of the arrogant SOB Virus (nickname of the teacher...
Dear Shri PM ji, Thanks for speaking out and calming us finally, days after the tragedy that happened on the streets of Delhi. Sir, we would like to believe that your feelings of concern for the victim are indeed true and genuine. We thank you for the deep empathy you displayed for the young protestors braving the Delhi cold, getting drenched by water cannon, beaten up by Police batons, shot by tear gas shells while demanding a safer city for women. Your words of calm and reason are soothing balm to a troubled nation. We already feel better. But sir, YOU are the establishment. You don’t demand results , but, it is you who should deliver RESULTS . The people are angry because each day their wives, sisters and daughters are condemned to live in a state of fear of the goons and criminals. Women are afraid to step out after dark in the capital of the country. Even women of foreign countries are regularly issued advisories suggesting caution. Z plus security ...
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