…and the farmer killed the Goose that lay golden eggs
So the inevitable happens.
The Oct 2011 IIP figure is not only at a 28 month low, it is
also DOWN 5.1% .
Manufacturing output, which constitutes about 76% of the
industrial production is DOWN 6%.
Fiscal Deficit will most certainly EXCEED 4.6% as promised
in the Union Budget 2011.
This is not all, whilst the rupee is getting weaker by the
day, the current account deficit is going up. Interest Rates are still giving vertigo
to the industry, power is struggling with coal shortages and near-defaulting
SEBs, Infrastructure disbursement is at standstill, investement is moribund in
the economy and all this while inflation continues to cook a snook at the
powers to be at the center, including the RBI.
This blog continues to hold the view that the best way to
deal with inflation due to inadequate supply, was to boost the supply. However,
the RBI decided to kill the demand while on the other hand, the UPA govt. chose
to do nothing. Time and again, the RBI statement gave a veiled cry of despair
that its hawkish stance despite apparent slowdown in the economy was not met
with action from the Govt. front.
Hence, while on one hand Govt. apathy allows tonnes of food
grains lying in FCI godowns to rot or eaten away by rats, on the other hand
middlemen and hoarders made merry while the inflation monster ravished the “Aam
Admi” or the common man of India.
It is not that foreign investors are dying to get a toe hold
in the country as of now. India may have been there darling with 9+% growth. But
with a measly 6% GDP growth rate, it is an ugly duckling best avoided. But we
continued to play dangerous politics with this one element too.
The govt. continues to do this one step forward, two step
backward dance, making mockery of its credibility as it fools around with this
drama of allowing and subsequent withdrawal of retail FDI proposal. Such
negative acts may well be the final straw to scare away potential long term
investor faster than you can say Sharad Pawar.
So we are no longer growing at the mythical 9% GDP, the
fiscal situation is in a mess, policy
paralysis nay policy rigor mortis seems complete,
internal growth has taken a nosedive and now the last resort of desperate
economies, of weakening currency and hoping for export led revival also seems
to be lost. We already have Re at 52 to a dollar.
And so the (UPA) farmer killed the Geese laying
the golden eggs....and found nothing inside.
BTW does anybody remember that the markets went into circuits with joy as the UPA got its second term.
Ha Ha Ha.
Seems like aeons ago.
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