Key takeaways from what trends/results available so far:
- The 3-1 results (as appear likely now) are primarily against the ruling Congress party and one expects markets to adequately cheer the results on Monday. Frankly, a 4-0 was very optimistic. But a 3-1 also is a good indication (for now) of the UPA losing and NDA securing at least a simple majority in 2014.
- The emergence of AAP is more a reflection of the common man’s anger with the Congress rather than emergence of a NaMo wave.
- A wake up call for BJP, in terms of Chattisgarh as they can not take things lightly and need to constantly be on guard against complacency and deviations from development agenda.
- The winter session may see much efforts by the UPA to bludgeon through controversial bills in a last ditch effort to woo a single “minority” segment and the economically marginalized. This may prove to be a dampener for the markets and may result in a volatile ride in the near term.
- Finally, the success of the debutante AAP is a clarion call that the traditional corrupt and opportunistic politics (and politicians) are out of favor. Older parties like the BJP & the Congress will be thankful that the AAP doesn’t have a rest of India presence, so they are safe in 2014 at least. But if Delhi voting is an indication, the political parties can now never be complacent and let the corrupt/arrogant/criminal elements take over, for there is always a fear of AAP breathing down there neck. BTW, the last ditch "doctored" sting has been a damp squib, with the voters rejecting the fake drama.
- Interestingly, the BBC didn’t find the startling Indian election results worth covering in their world news bulletin in the morning. Even at 1:20 PM IST, their Asia page carries no mention of the Indian elections. There is a news article on Pakistan though. I guess, historic events in India (GDP $ 1.8 tn) aren’t important enough as regular Pakistan (GPD $ 0.2 tn) events for the British.