The Small Voice

I was talking to a friend yesterday who is extremely clued into the capital markets. We discussed on how the shape of things appear to be on the global front. During our talks, I realized that though we as a market participants have our views on the economy and the macro trends, however the real long term macro economic trends (often relating to countries, myopic monetary policies followed by policy makers and central banks and the relative impact on currencies) are usually not visible in the course of day to day markets or even a short span of time. Actually, it is difficult to justify much of the imbalances empirically since most of the parameters when start to manifest, are already too late to act upon. Also, if there is a gradual shift in the currencies itself, the whole method of measurement becomes flawed. Hence, at times the very best an analyst can do is to arrive at logical conclusions intuitively. Also, once an anomaly is identified, shorting an asset class is risk...

--> What Kunal meant was that even though there was a drizzle, it wasn’t yet pouring. That was ten minutes ago. In the morning today, the skies were so overcast when we stepped on to the CST station that it felt it was evening 6PM rather than 8.30 AM in the morning.  But that was only the buildup. The climax before the real action begins. And the action has begun and how! After the lean last year, India badly needs good monsoons. And not only that, its always a pleasure to watch the heavens rewarding the earthlings after the hardships of summer with cool showers. The fact that during rains, girls get prettier (to me at least) is another reason why I love rains. Coming to here and now, the view is awesome with the sea hardly visible and the rain blowing like mist in slow motion as it bounces off ledges and protrusions in buildings. I believe the pleasure of rains is best enjoyed in a South Asian country with monsoon showers. And in case you are lucky enough to...